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October 12, 2022

Forecasting Regional Fuel and Energy Balances to Improve Investment Attractiveness

Key conclusions

The fuel and energy balance is extremely important for strategic planning at regional and federal levels 

“Under Soviet rule the energy balance was the basis of strategic planning and regional development, it was where everything started,” Pavel Zavalny, Chairman of the Committee of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on Energy; President, Russian Gas Society.

“The fuel and energy balance for any region is the basis for the formation of the gasification programme. The primary basis of everything is the fuel and energy balance formed in the region. Only heads of regions, governments of respective entities need to determine where and what kind of energy to consume from the point of view of economic feasibility,” Sergey Gustov, Chief Executive Officer, Gazprom Mezhregiongaz.

“The issue of generating energy statistics at both regional and federal level is not idle, as the quality of baseline data also determines the quality of the balance sheet that we will get,” Alexey Kulapin, General Director, Russian Energy Agency (REA) of the Ministry of Energy of Russia. 

Efficient energy saving enables increased exports and optimised energy consumption 

“The potential for energy savings is very high. It is possible to save and export this product,” Pavel Zavalny, Chairman of the Committee of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on Energy; President, Russian Gas Society.

“If we are going to use energy security, we need to diversify our sources. There is no one silver bullet that will solve all problems, there is no single solution. Efficiency, saving, optimizing energy is very important,” Nuki Agya Utama, Executive Director, ASEAN Centre for Energy.

Problems

Inconsistencies in energy planning. The need to improve the methodology for the fuel and energy balance 

“We need to think about changing the methodology of forming the forecast fuel and energy balance, factoring in a longer planning horizon and, importantly, macroeconomic indicators and, as the current situation shows, foreign economic indicators as well. Today, it is methodologically quite difficult to collect a fuel and energy balance at the regional level because the collection of baseline data is set up differently in each region. Somewhere [there are] regional specifics, and somewhere there is simply no collection methodology,” Alexey Kulapin, General Director, Russian Energy Agency (REA) of the Ministry of Energy of Russia.

“The main problem we need to solve within the planning system is the different planning horizon of consumers and generators: while the consumer plans consumption for 4 to 5 years at the most, the planning horizon of the plants is quite different,” Roman Berdnikov, First Deputy General Director, Member of the Management Board, RusHydro. 

Solutions

Long-term forecasting of the fuel and energy balance 

“We need to find a compromise on how to plan properly, taking into account the long-term development of generation facilities. Let’s look at the planning horizon a little wider, this will allow us to plan properly,” Roman Berdnikov, First Deputy General Director, Member of the Management Board, RusHydro.

“We, the Russian Energy Agency, have started this work [on long-term planning, – Ed.]. Now, on behalf of the Ministry of Energy, we are developing a methodology for forming a long-term forecast fuel and energy balance, taking into account all types of energy resources and focusing on the regional level. We are doing this work and plan to complete it by the end of the year,” Alexey Kulapin, General Director, Russian Energy Agency (REA) of the Ministry of Energy of Russia. 

Russia’s regions need to step up their work on the fuel and energy balance 

“So far there is no understanding of the necessity and importance of this work in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. By the first of October, each subject was supposed to prepare a report on energy consumption for the previous year and update the projected energy balance. Has this work been done? It is not done. This is where we need to start. Without this there will be no efficient energy consumption,” Pavel Zavalny, Chairman of the Committee of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on Energy; President, Russian Gas Society.

“A methodology needs to be built for collecting the primary statistical data needed to produce a projected fuel and energy balance,” Alexey Kulapin, General Director, Russian Energy Agency (REA) of the Ministry of Energy of Russia.

Efficiency of the fuel and energy mix will be enhanced by the use of digital technology 

“If we talk about the formation of a unified long-term forecast fuel and energy balance, it is currently impossible without the use of modern digital technology. Next year, we are planning to make a prototype of a software package that will enable automated calculation of the forecast fuel and energy balance, integrated with the state information system of the fuel and energy complex, based on the input data contained in the GIS FEC and allow modelling and forecasting balance changes based on various factors: pricing, transport accessibility, external factors, prices on external markets, and other factors,” Alexey Kulapin, General Director, Russian Energy Agency (REA) of the Ministry of Energy of Russia.


For more information, visit the Roscongress Foundation’s Information and Analytical System roscongress.org and the official Forum website rusenergyweek.com.